Tag Archives: financial econometrics

Downloading SP500 stock price data with Julia

By: Christian Groll

Re-posted from: http://grollchristian.wordpress.com/2014/09/05/sp500-data-download-julia/

In a previous post I already described how to download stock price data for all constituents of the SP500 with R. Meanwhile, however, I shifted all of my coding to the new and very promising technical computing language julia. I obviously wanted to also enjoy the convenience of downloading stock price data directly in julia. Hence, in this post I will describe how one could use julia to download stock price data from Yahoo!Finance in general, and – as an advanced use case – how to download adjusted closing prices for all SP500 constituents. We also will make use of julia’s parallel computing capabilities, in order to tremendously speed up the downloading and processing steps compared to my original code in R.

Before we start, we first need to make sure that we have all relevant packages installed. As a format for storing time series data I always rely on the TimeData package from the official package repository:

Pkg.add("TimeData")

The functions required for data download are bundled in the not yet registered EconDatasets package, which we can clone from github:

Pkg.clone("https://github.com/JuliaFinMetriX/EconDatasets.jl.git")

1 Download data using readYahooFinance

Now that all required packages are installed, we will first demonstrate a simple use case for the low-level function readYahooFinance. This functions allows easy access to the complete stock data provided by Yahoo!Finance, comprising fields open, high, low, close, volume and adjusted close. As an example, we now download data for NASDAQ-100, S&P 500 and EURO STOXX 50 Index.

using TimeData
using Dates
using EconDatasets

tickerSymbs = ["^NDX"
               "^GSPC"
               "^STOXX50E"]


dates = Date(1960,1,1):Date(2014,7,20)

indexData = [readYahooFinance(dates, symb) for symb in tickerSymbs]

## display first five dates of NASDAQ
indexData[1][1:5, :]

idx Open High Low Close Volume Adj_Close
1985-10-01 221.24 224.32 221.13 224.28 153160000 112.14
1985-10-02 224.28 225.08 221.56 221.65 164640000 110.82
1985-10-03 221.68 222.37 220.24 221.74 147300000 110.87
1985-10-04 221.74 221.74 219.71 220.15 147900000 110.07
1985-10-07 220.15 220.27 216.35 216.4 128640000 108.2

Using comprehension, the function readYahooFinance can be applied to all ticker symbols in an Array. The output will be an Array of type Any, with individual entries being of type Timematr.

When we focus on one variable for each stock only, we can store the data more concisely in a single TimeData object. Therefore, we join individual stocks at the their idx entries. We do not want to lose any data at this step, so that we will use an outer join in order to get a row for each date that occurs for at least one of the individual stocks. Missing values will be replaced by NA, so that we now get an object of type Timenum, as Timematr objects are not allowed to contain NAs.

adjCloseData = indexData[1][:Adj_Close]
names!(adjCloseData.vals, [symbol(tickerSymbs[1])])

for ii=2:3
    nextStock = indexData[ii] |>
         x -> x[:Adj_Close]
    names!(nextStock.vals, [symbol(tickerSymbs[ii])])
    adjCloseData = joinSortedIdx_outer(adjCloseData, nextStock)
end

adjCloseData[[1:10; (end-10):end], :]

idx ^NDX ^GSPC ^STOXX50E
1950-01-03 NA 16.66 NA
1950-01-04 NA 16.85 NA
1950-01-05 NA 16.93 NA
1950-01-06 NA 16.98 NA
1950-01-09 NA 17.08 NA
1950-01-10 NA 17.03 NA
1950-01-11 NA 17.09 NA
1950-01-12 NA 16.76 NA
1950-01-13 NA 16.67 NA
1950-01-16 NA 16.72 NA
2014-07-04 NA NA 3270.47
2014-07-07 3910.71 1977.65 3230.92
2014-07-08 3864.07 1963.71 3184.38
2014-07-09 3892.91 1972.83 3203.1
2014-07-10 3880.04 1964.68 3150.59
2014-07-11 3904.58 1967.57 3157.05
2014-07-14 3929.46 1977.1 3185.86
2014-07-15 3914.46 1973.28 3153.75
2014-07-16 3932.33 1981.57 3202.94
2014-07-17 3878.01 1958.12 3157.82
2014-07-18 3939.89 1978.22 3164.21

2 Download adjusted closing prices of SP500 constituents

Now that we already have seen a first use case of function readYahooFinance, we now want to try the capabilities of julia and the EconDatasets package with a more challenging task. Hence, we want to download adjusted stock prices for all constituents of the SP500 in a fully automated way. Therefore, we first need to get a list of the ticker symbols of all constituents, which we can get from the S&P homepage. However, this list is stored as an Excel sheet with .xls extension, and we need to read in this binary file with package Taro.

To make Taro work, you first need to make sure that it is able to find Java on your system. If your path deviates from the default settings, just make sure to set the respective JAVA_LIB environment variable in your .bashrc file. In my case, the variable is set as follows:

# 64-bit machine
# JAVA_LIB="/usr/lib/jvm/java-7-openjdk-amd64/jre/lib/amd64/server/"

# 32-bit machine
JAVA_LIB="/usr/lib/jvm/java-7-openjdk-i386/jre/lib/i386/server/"
export JAVA_LIB

We can now install and load package Taro:

Pkg.add("Taro")

using Taro
Taro.init()

Found libjvm @ /usr/lib/jvm/java-7-openjdk-i386/jre/lib/i386/server/

If something with your Taro configuration is not correct, you will get an error at this step. In this case, you could simply download and export the Excel sheet to .csv manually, which you then can read in with function readtable from the DataFrames package.

Otherwise, you can use Taro to download and read in the respective part of the Excel sheet:

url = "http://us.spindices.com/idsexport/file.xls?hostIdentifier=48190c8c-42c4-46af-8d1a-0cd5db894797&selectedModule=Constituents&selectedSubModule=ConstituentsFullList&indexId=340"
filepath = download(url)
constituents = Taro.readxl(filepath, "Constituents", "A10:B511")
head(constituents)

Constituent Symbol
3M Co MMM
Abbott Laboratories ABT
AbbVie Inc. ABBV
Accenture plc ACN
ACE Limited ACE
Actavis plc ACT

We now should have name and ticker symbol of each SP500 constituent stored as a DataFrame. In my case, however, there even is one ticker symbol too much, although I do not know why:

(nTicker, nVars) = size(constituents)

501
2

An inconsistency that I will not further invest at this point. In addition, however, some of the ticker symbols are automatically read in as boolean values, and we will have to convert them to strings first. Let’s display all constituents with boolean values:

isBoolTicker = [isa(tickerSymbol, Bool) for tickerSymbol in
                constituents[:Symbol]]

constituents[find(isBoolTicker), :]

Constituent Symbol
AT&T Inc true
Ford Motor Co false

The reason for this is that the respective ticker symbols are “T” and “F”, which will be interpreted as boolean values. Once we did correct for this mistake, we transform the array of ticker symbols into an Array of type ASCIIString.

indTrue = find(constituents[2] .== true)
indFalse = find(constituents[2] .== false)

constituents[indTrue, 2] = "T"
constituents[indFalse, 2] = "F"

tickerSymb = ASCIIString[constituents[:Symbol]...]
tickerSymb[1:5]

MMM
ABT
ABBV
ACN
ACE

Now that we already have a list of all ticker symbols, in principle we could apply the same procedure as before: download each stock, extract the adjusted closing prices, and join all individual price series. However, as we have 500 stocks, this procedure would already take approximately 15 minutes if each individual stock took only 2 seconds. Hence, we strive for a much faster result using julia’s parallel computing capabilities, and this is already implemented as function readYahooAdjClose.

Under the hood, readYahooAdjClose uses a map-reduce structure. As the map step, for any given ticker symbol we download the data, extract the adjusted closing prices and rename the column to its ticker symbol. As reduce step we need to specify some operation that combines the individual results of the map step – in our case, this is function joinSortedIdx_outer.

Let’s now set the stage for parallel computation, add three additional processes and load the required packages on each process.

addprocs(3)

@everywhere using Dates
@everywhere using DataFrames
@everywhere using TimeData
@everywhere using EconDatasets

3-element Array{Any,1}:
 2
 3
 4

To run the parallelized code, simply call function readYahooAdjClose:

dates = Date(1960,1,1):Date(2014,7,20)

## measure time
t0 = time()

@time vals = readYahooAdjClose(dates, tickerSymb, :d)

t1 = time()
elapsedTime = t1-t0
mins, secs = divrem(elapsedTime, 60)

Downloading of all 500 stocks did only take:

println("elapsed time: ", int(mins), " minutes, ", ceil(secs), " seconds")

elapsed time: 3 minutes, 45.0 seconds

Now we convert the data of type Timedata to type Timenum and store the result in the EconDatasets data directory:

valsTn = convert(Timenum, vals)
pathToStore = joinpath(Pkg.dir("EconDatasets"), "data", "SP500.csv")
writeTimedata(pathToStore, valsTn)

3 Visualize missing values

From previous experiences I already know that the saying “you get what you pay for” also holds for the free Yahoo!Finance database: the data comes with a lot of missing values. In order to get a feeling for the data quality, we want to visualize all missing values. Therefore, we sort all assets with respect to the number of missing values.

(nObs, nStocks) = size(valsTn)

NAorNot = Array(Int, nObs, nStocks)

for ii=1:nStocks
    NAorNot[:, ii] = isna(vals.vals[ii])*1
end

nNAs = sum(NAorNot, 1)
p = sortperm(nNAs[:])
tickSorted = tickerSymb[p]
NAorNotSorted = NAorNot[:, p]

For the visualization, we rely on plot.ly, as we get an interactive graphic this way. This allows the identification of individual stocks in the graphic by simple mouse clicks. If you want to replicate the figure, you will need to sign in with an own and free plot.ly account.

Pkg.clone("https://github.com/plotly/Plotly.jl")
using Plotly

## sign in with your account
## Plotly.signin("username", "authentication")

nToPlot = nStocks
datsStrings = ASCIIString[string(dat, " 00:00:00") for dat in valsTn.idx]
data = [
        [
         "z" => NAorNotSorted[:, 1:nToPlot],
         "y" => tickSorted[1:nToPlot],
         "x" => datsStrings, 
         "type" => "heatmap"
         ]
        ]

response = Plotly.plot([data], ["filename" => "Published graphics/SP500 missing values", "fileopt" => "overwrite"])
plot_url = response["url"]

Although the resulting graphic easily could be directly embedded into this html file, you will need to follow this link to watch it, since the plot.ly graphic is a large data file and hence takes quite some time to load. Nevertheless, I also exported a .png version of the graphic, which you can find below. Thereby, red dots are representing missing values.

missing_values.png

4 Get logarithmic returns

So now we already have our closing price data at our hands. However, in financial econometrics we usually analyze return data, as prices are non-stationary almost always. Hence, we now want to derive returns from our price series.

For this step I rely on the also not yet registered Econometrics package:

Pkg.clone("https://github.com/JuliaFinMetriX/Econometrics.jl.git")
using Econometrics

The reason for this is that I can make use of function price2ret then, which implements a slightly more sophisticated approach to return calculation. This can best be described through an example, which we can set up using function testcase from the TimeData package:

logPrices = testcase(Timenum, 4)

idx prices1 prices2
2010-01-01 100 110
2010-01-02 120 120
2010-01-03 140 NA
2010-01-04 170 130
2010-01-05 200 150

As you can see, the example logarithmic prices have a single missing observation at January 3rd. Straightforward application of the logarithmic return calculation formula hence will result in two missing values in the return series:

logRetSimple = logPrices[2:end, :] .- logPrices[1:(end-1),:]

idx prices1 prices2
2010-01-02 20 10
2010-01-03 20 NA
2010-01-04 30 NA
2010-01-05 30 20

In contrast, function price2ret assumes that single missing values in the middle of a price series are truly non-existent: there is no observation, because the stock exchange was closed and there simply was no trading. For example, this could easily happen if you have stocks from multiple countries with different holidays. Note, that this kind of missingness is different to a case where the stock exchange was open and trading did occur, but we were not able to observe the resulting price (for a more elaborate discussion on this point take a look at my blog post about missing stock price data). Using function price2ret, you ultimately will end up with a stock return series with only one NA for this example:

## get real prices
logRetEconometrics = price2ret(logPrices; log = true)

idx prices1 prices2
2010-01-02 20 10
2010-01-03 20 NA
2010-01-04 30 10
2010-01-05 30 20

So the final step in our logarithmic return calculation is to apply price2ret to the logarithmic prices, specify the usage of differences for return calculations through log = true, and multiply the results by 100 in order to get percentage returns.

percentLogRet = price2ret(log(valsTn); log = true).*100

Alternatively, you could get discrete returns with:

percentDiscRet = price2ret(valsTn; log = false).*100

Filed under: financial econometrics, Julia Tagged: data, sp500

Coping with missing stock price data

By: Christian Groll

Re-posted from: http://grollchristian.wordpress.com/2014/08/13/missing-data/

1 Missing stock price data

When downloading historic stock price data it happens quite frequently that some observations in the middle of the sample are missing. Hence the question: how should we cope with this? There are several ways how we could process the data, each approach coming with its own advantages and disadvantages, and we want to compare some of the most common approaches in this post.

In any case, however, we want to treat missing values as NA and not as Julia’s built-in NaN (a short justification on why NA is more suitable can be found here). Hence, data best should be treated through DataFrames or – if the data comes with time information – through type Timenum from the TimeData package. In the following, we will use these packages in order to show some common approaches to deal with missing stock price data using an artificially made up data set that shall represent logarthmic prices.

The reason why we are looking at logarthmic prices and returns instead of normal prices and net returns is just that logarithmic returns are defined as simple difference between logarithmic prices of successive days:

\displaystyle r_{t}^{\log}=\log(P_{t}) - \log(P_{t-1})

This way, our calculations simply involve nicer numbers, and all results equally hold for normal prices and returns as well.

We will be using the following exemplary data set of logarthmic prices for the comparison of different approaches:

using TimeData
using Dates
using Econometrics

df = DataFrame()
df[:stock1] = @data([100, 120, 140, 170, 200])
df[:stock2] = @data([110, 120, NA, 130, 150])

dats = [Date(2010, 1, 1):Date(2010, 1, 5)]

originalPrices = Timenum(df, dats)
idx stock1 stock2
2010-01-01 100 110
2010-01-02 120 120
2010-01-03 140 NA
2010-01-04 170 130
2010-01-05 200 150

One possible explanation for such a pattern in the data could be that the two stocks are from different countries, and only the country of the second stock has a holiday at January the 3rd.

Quite often in such a situation, people just refrain from any deviations from the basic calculation formula of logarithmic returns and calculate the associated returns as simple differences. This way, however, each missing observation NA will lead to two NAs in the return series:

simpleDiffRets = originalPrices[2:end, :] .- originalPrices[1:(end-1), :]
idx stock1 stock2
2010-01-02 20 10
2010-01-03 20 NA
2010-01-04 30 NA
2010-01-05 30 20

For example, this also is the approach followed by the PerformanceAnalytics package in R:

library(tseries)
library(PerformanceAnalytics)

stockPrices1 <- c(100, 120, 140, 170, 200)
stockPrices2 <- c(110, 120, NA, 130, 150)

## combine in matrix and name columns and rows
stockPrices <- cbind(stockPrices1, stockPrices2)
dates <- seq(as.Date('2010-1-1'),by='days',length=5)
colnames(stockPrices) <- c("A", "B")
rownames(stockPrices) <- as.character(dates)
(stockPrices)

returns = Return.calculate(exp(stockPrices), method="compound")
nil nil
20 10
20 nil
30 nil
30 20

When we calculate returns as the difference between successive closing prices P_{t} and P_{t-1}, a single return simply represents all price movements that happened at day t, including the opening auction that determines the very first price at this day.

Thinking about returns this way, it obviously makes sense to assign a value of NA to each day of the return series where a stock exchange was closed due to holiday, since there simply are no stock price movements on that day. But why would we set the next day’s return to NA as well?

In other words, we should distinguish between two different cases of NA values for our prices:

  1. NA occurs because the stock exchange was closed this day and hence there never were any price movements
  2. the stock exchange was open that day, and in reality there were some price changes. However, due to a deficiency of our data set, we do not know the price of the respective day.

For the second case, we really would like to have two consecutive values of NA in our return series. Knowing only the prices in t and t+2, there is no way how we could reasonably deduce the value that the price did take on in t+1. Hence, there are infinitely many possibilities to allocate a certain two-day price increase to two returns.

For the first case, however, it seems unnecessarily rigid to force the return series to have two NA values: allocating all of the two-day price increase to the one day where the stock exchange was open, and a missing value NA to the day that the stock exchange was closed doesn’t seem to be too arbitrary.

This is how returns are calculated by default in the (not yet registered) Econometrics package.

logRet = price2ret(originalPrices, log = true)
idx stock1 stock2
2010-01-02 20 10
2010-01-03 20 NA
2010-01-04 30 10
2010-01-05 30 20

And, the other way round, aggregating the return series again will also keep NAs for the respective days, but otherwise perform the desired aggregation. Without specified initial prices, aggregated prices will all start with value 0 for logarithmic prices, and hence express something like normalized prices that allow a nice comparison of different stock price evolutions.

normedPrices = ret2price(logRet, log = true)
idx stock1 stock2
2010-01-01 0 0
2010-01-02 20 10
2010-01-03 40 NA
2010-01-04 70 20
2010-01-05 100 40

To regain the complete price series (together with a definitely correct starting date), one simply needs to additionally specify the original starting prices.

truePrices = ret2price(logRet, originalPrices, log = true)
idx stock1 stock2
2010-01-01 100 110
2010-01-02 120 120
2010-01-03 140 NA
2010-01-04 170 130
2010-01-05 200 150

In some cases, however, missing values NA may not be allowed. This could be a likelihood function that requires real values only, or some plotting function. For these cases NAs easily can be removed through imputation. For log price plots, a meaningful way would be:

impute!(truePrices, "last")
idx stock1 stock2
2010-01-01 100 110
2010-01-02 120 120
2010-01-03 140 120
2010-01-04 170 130
2010-01-05 200 150

However, for log returns, the associated transformation then would artificially incorporate values of 0:

impute!(logRet, "zero")
idx stock1 stock2
2010-01-02 20 10
2010-01-03 20 0
2010-01-04 30 10
2010-01-05 30 20

As an alternative to replacing NA values, one could also simply remove the respective dates from the data set. Again, there are two options how this could be done.

First, one could remove any missing observations directly in the price series:

originalPrices2 = deepcopy(originalPrices)
noNAprices = convert(TimeData.Timematr, originalPrices2, true)
idx stock1 stock2
2010-01-01 100 110
2010-01-02 120 120
2010-01-04 170 130
2010-01-05 200 150

For the return series, however, we then have a – probably large – multi-day price jump that seems to be a single-day return. In our example, we suddenly observe a return of 50 for the first stock.

logRet = price2ret(noNAprices)
idx stock1 stock2
2010-01-02 20 10
2010-01-04 50 10
2010-01-05 30 20

A second way to eliminate NAs would be to remove them from the return series.

logRet = price2ret(originalPrices)
noNAlogRet = convert(TimeData.Timematr, logRet, true)
idx stock1 stock2
2010-01-02 20 10
2010-01-04 30 10
2010-01-05 30 20

However, deriving the associated price series for this processed return series will then lead to deviating end prices:

noNAprices = ret2price(noNAlogRet, originalPrices)
idx stock1 stock2
2010-01-01 100 110
2010-01-02 120 120
2010-01-04 150 130
2010-01-05 180 150

as opposed to the real end prices

originalPrices
idx stock1 stock2
2010-01-01 100 110
2010-01-02 120 120
2010-01-03 140 NA
2010-01-04 170 130
2010-01-05 200 150

The first stock now suddenly ends with a price of only 180 instead of 200.

2 Summary

The first step when facing a missing price observation is to think whether it might make sense to treat only one return as missing, assigning the complete price movement to the other return. This is perfectly reasonable for days where the stock market really was closed. In all other cases, however, it might make more sense to calculate logarithmic returns as simple differences, leading to two NAs in the return series.

Once there are NA values present, we can chose between three options.

2.1 Keeping NAs

Keeping NA values might be cumbersome in some situations, since some functions might only be working for data without NA values.

2.2 Replacing NAs

In cases where NAs may not be present, there sometimes might exist ways of replacing them that perfectly make sense. However, manually replacing observations in some way means messing with the original data, and one should be cautious to not incorporate any artificial patterns this way.

2.3 Removing NAs

Obviously, when dates with NA values for only some variables are eliminated completely, we simultaneously lose data for those variables where observations originally were present. Furthermore, eliminating cases with NAs for returns will lead to price evolutions that are different to the original prices.

2.4 Overview

Possible prices:

idx simple diffs single NA replace w 0 rm NA price rm NA return
2010-01-01 100, 110 100, 110 100, 100 100, 110 100, 110
2010-01-02 120, 120 120, 120 120, 120 120, 120 120, 120
2010-01-03 140, NA 140, NA 140, 120    
2010-01-04 170, 130 170, 130 170, 130 170, 130 150, 130
2010-01-05 200, 150 200, 150 200, 150 200, 150 180, 150

Possible returns:

idx simple diffs single NA replace w 0 rm NA price rm NA return
2010-01-02 20, 10 20, 10 20, 10 20, 10 20, 10
2010-01-03 20, NA 20, NA 20, 0    
2010-01-04 30, NA 30, 10 30, 10 50, 10 30, 10
2010-01-05 30, 20 30, 20 30, 20 30, 20 30, 20

Filed under: financial econometrics, Julia Tagged: data, missing data, returns