Re-posted from: https://www.oxinabox.net/2022/11/11/Estimating-Estrogen.html
As a trans-femme on HRT, I would like to know the concentrations of estradiol in my blood at all hours of day.
This is useful as the peak, the trough and average all have effects.
However, I only get blood tests a finite number of times per day – usually once.
I am not a medical doctor, but I am the kind of doctor who can apply scientific modelling to the task of estimating curves based on limited observations.
I am honestly surprised no one has done this.
The intersection of trans folk and scientific computing is non-trivial.
After all, the hardest problem in computer science is gender dysphoria.
To do this we are going to use probabilistic programming, to get a distribution of possible level curves.
This is a great use-case for probabilistic programming.
We have a ton of domain knowledge, but that domain knowledge has a few parameters we don’t know, and we have only a little data.
And crucially we are perfectly fine with getting a distribution of answers out, rather than a single answer.