Category Archives: Julia

Learning Epidemic Models That Extrapolate, AI4Pandemics

By: Christopher Rackauckas

Re-posted from: http://www.stochasticlifestyle.com/learning-epidemic-models-that-extrapolate-ai4pandemics/

I think this talk was pretty good so I wanted to link it here!

Title: Learning Epidemic Models That Extrapolate

Speaker Chris Rackauckas, https://chrisrackauckas.com/

Abstract:
Modern techniques of machine learning are uncanny in their ability to automatically learn predictive models directly from data. However, they do not tend to work beyond their original training dataset. Mechanistic models utilize characteristics of the problem to ensure accurate qualitative extrapolation but can lack in predictive power. How can we build techniques which integrate the best of both approaches? In this talk we will discuss the body of work around universal differential equations, a technique which mixes traditional differential equation modeling with machine learning for accurate extrapolation from small data. We will showcase how incorporating different variations of the technique, such as Bayesian symbolic regression and optimizing the choice of architectures, can lead to the recovery of predictive epidemic models in a robust way. The numerical difficulties of learning potentially stiff and chaotic models will highlight how most of the adjoint techniques used throughout machine learning are inappropriate for learning scientific models, and techniques which mitigate these numerical ills will be demonstrated. We end by showing how these improved stability techniques have been automated and optimized by the software of the SciML organization, allowing practitioners to quickly scale these techniques to real-world applications.

See more on: https://ai4pandemics.org/

The post Learning Epidemic Models That Extrapolate, AI4Pandemics appeared first on Stochastic Lifestyle.

Basic DataFrames.jl: getting the data

By: Blog by Bogumił Kamiński

Re-posted from: https://bkamins.github.io/julialang/2021/07/23/getdata.html

Introduction

During JuliaCon 2021 I got some reqests to show some more basic
functionalities of DataFrames.jl. I started writing such a post.
It seems it ended up not so basic, but I hope it is useful.

What we will want to do is to create a plot of PLN/USD buy and sell exchange
rates for the year 2020. The key challenge is getting the data. I fetch it from
a Web API provided by NBP (Narodowy Bank Polski).

Getting ready

Before writing our solutoin let us play a bit with the NBP Web API.

Here is a sample a query that you can submit to get information about bid
and ask rates of PLN/USD on 2020-01-03:

https://api.nbp.pl/api/exchangerates/rates/c/usd/2020-01-03/?format=json

(you can copy-paste it into your browser to see the rendered result)

We have to be careful though as sometimes the prices are not available, and
we get the dreaded 404 error. It happens e.g. for 2020-01-01:

https://api.nbp.pl/api/exchangerates/rates/c/usd/2020-01-01/?format=json

Before we start let us learn how to handle such queries in Julia.

The first step is getting the query result as a string:

julia> using HTTP

julia> q = "https://api.nbp.pl/api/exchangerates/rates/c/usd/2020-01-03/?format=json"
"https://api.nbp.pl/api/exchangerates/rates/c/usd/2020-01-03/?format=json"

julia> r = HTTP.get(q)
HTTP.Messages.Response:
"""
HTTP/1.1 200 OK
Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2021 17:04:48 GMT
Cache-Control: no-cache
Pragma: no-cache
Content-Length: 147
Content-Type: application/json; charset=utf-8
Expires: -1
ETag: "ahlzfBWI/hBaFs4mrcmnRvKkGdL1gH6hS2LIHIfppJI="
Set-Cookie: ee3la5eizeiY4Eix=ud5ahSho; path=/

{"table":"C","currency":"dolar amerykański","code":"USD","rates":[{"no":"002/C/NBP/2020","effectiveDate":"2020-01-03","bid":3.7667,"ask":3.8427}]}"""

julia> s = String(r.body)
"{\"table\":\"C\",\"currency\":\"dolar amerykański\",\"code\":\"USD\",\"rates\":[{\"no\":\"002/C/NBP/2020\",\"effectiveDate\":\"2020-01-03\",\"bid\":3.7667,\"ask\":3.8427}]}"

We can see that the result of the request is a JSON file, so let us parse it and inspect a bit:

julia> using JSON3

julia> j = JSON3.read(s)
JSON3.Object{Base.CodeUnits{UInt8, String}, Vector{UInt64}} with 4 entries:
  :table    => "C"
  :currency => "dolar amerykański"
  :code     => "USD"
  :rates    => JSON3.Object[{…

julia> j.code
"USD"

julia> j.rates
1-element JSON3.Array{JSON3.Object, Base.CodeUnits{UInt8, String}, SubArray{UInt64, 1, Vector{UInt64}, Tuple{UnitRange{Int64}}, true}}:
 {
              "no": "002/C/NBP/2020",
   "effectiveDate": "2020-01-03",
             "bid": 3.7667,
             "ask": 3.8427
}

julia> j.rates[1].effectiveDate
"2020-01-03"

julia> j.rates[1].bid
3.7667

julia> j.rates[1].ask
3.8427

Now we know enough about the structure of the response to write a full solution.

Before moving forward let us just check what happens if we try to fetch data
in a day for which there are no quotations:

julia> q = "https://api.nbp.pl/api/exchangerates/rates/c/usd/2020-01-01/?format=json"
"https://api.nbp.pl/api/exchangerates/rates/c/usd/2020-01-01/?format=json"

julia> r = HTTP.get(q)
ERROR: HTTP.ExceptionRequest.StatusError(404, "GET", "/api/exchangerates/rates/c/usd/2020-01-01/?format=json", HTTP.Messages.Response:
"""
HTTP/1.1 404 Not Found
Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2021 17:09:07 GMT
Cache-Control: no-cache
Pragma: no-cache
Content-Length: 38
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8
Expires: -1
Set-Cookie: ee3la5eizeiY4Eix=Naew5Ohp; path=/

404 NotFound - Not Found - Brak danych""")

We can see that in this case we get a 404 error thrown as
HTTP.ExceptionRequest.StatusError exception.

We are ready to write the solution we wanted.

Julia in action

First define a function that returns a NamedTuple with the date and bid and
ask rates. If the rates are not available it should return them as missing.

Here it goes:

julia> using Chain

julia> using Dates

julia> function get_rate(date::Date)
           q = "https://api.nbp.pl/api/exchangerates/rates/c/usd/$date/?format=json"

           try
               return @chain q begin
                   HTTP.get
                   String(_.body)
                   JSON3.read
                   @aside @assert _.code == "USD"
                   _.rates[1]
                   @aside @assert date == Date(_.effectiveDate)
                   (date=date, bid=_.bid, ask=_.ask)
               end
           catch e
               if e isa HTTP.ExceptionRequest.StatusError
                   return (date=date, bid=missing, ask=missing)
               else
                   rethrow(e)
               end
           end
       end
get_rate (generic function with 1 method)

Let us note a few things:

  1. In order to streamline processing I used @chain macro from the Chain.jl
    package (a lot of people are asking for more examples how it can be used in
    practice).
  2. In particular I used the @aside statement twice to perform validation of
    the result. Note that this is a useful way to inject into a chain of commands
    an operation whose result should not be stored but it is still useful to be
    performed.
  3. I had to use trycatch block to handle the 404 error. Note though, that
    if for some strange reason we got an exception of type other than
    HTTP.ExceptionRequest.StatusError I rethrow it to avoid covering such error
    (and many bad things can happen in the wild e.g. we could have
    run out of memory).

Let us test our function before moving forward:

julia> get_rate(Date("2020-01-03"))
(date = Date("2020-01-03"), bid = 3.7667, ask = 3.8427)

julia> get_rate(Date("2020-01-01"))
(date = Date("2020-01-01"), bid = missing, ask = missing)

I am sure everyone is waiting now to get to working with DataFrames.jl. Here
it goes, we collect the data from the whole year to a DataFrame using the
push! function:

julia> using DataFrames

julia> usd_pln = DataFrame()
0×0 DataFrame

julia> for date in Date("2020-01-01"):Day(1):Date("2020-12-31")
           push!(usd_pln, get_rate(date), promote=true)
       end

julia> usd_pln
366×3 DataFrame
 Row │ date        bid           ask
     │ Date        Float64?      Float64?
─────┼────────────────────────────────────────
   1 │ 2020-01-01  missing       missing
   2 │ 2020-01-02        3.7597        3.8357
   3 │ 2020-01-03        3.7667        3.8427
   4 │ 2020-01-04  missing       missing
   5 │ 2020-01-05  missing       missing
   6 │ 2020-01-06  missing       missing
   7 │ 2020-01-07        3.7679        3.8441
  ⋮  │     ⋮            ⋮             ⋮
 360 │ 2020-12-25  missing       missing
 361 │ 2020-12-26  missing       missing
 362 │ 2020-12-27  missing       missing
 363 │ 2020-12-28        3.6611        3.7351
 364 │ 2020-12-29  missing       missing
 365 │ 2020-12-30        3.6833        3.7577
 366 │ 2020-12-31        3.6714        3.7456
                              352 rows omitted

For me all worked cleanly. Note that I am using the promote=true keyword
argument, as some of the rows of :bid and :ask columns contain missing
values while other contain Float64 values.

We are ready to produce the plot we wanted:

julia> using Plots
julia> plot(usd_pln.date, [usd_pln.bid usd_pln.ask], label=["bid" "ask"],
            xlabel="date", ylabel="PLN/USD", xrotation=45);

And here is the plot:

PLN/USD bid and ask rates

Now feel free to perform any analyses that you find interesting on this data.

From my side let me just show you how to compute the fraction of days in which
the bid data is missing by day of the week.

julia> using Statistics

julia> @chain usd_pln begin
           transform(:date => ByRow(dayofweek))
           groupby(:date_dayofweek)
           combine(:bid => (x -> ismissing.(x) |> mean) => :fraction_missing)
       end
7×2 DataFrame
 Row │ date_dayofweek  fraction_missing
     │ Int64           Float64
─────┼──────────────────────────────────
   1 │              1         0.0769231
   2 │              2         0.0769231
   3 │              3         0.113208
   4 │              4         0.0754717
   5 │              5         0.0961538
   6 │              6         1.0
   7 │              7         1.0

As you probably might have expected on Saturdays and on Sundays we never
have any information on bid and ask rates.

Conclusion

I hope you enjoyed this post. I have chosen the topic because, at least in my
experience, these days fetching JSON data from the Internet is bread and butter
of virtually every data scientist, so I think it is well worth learning how to
do it.

Useful Algorithms That Are Not Optimized By Jax, PyTorch, or Tensorflow

By: Christopher Rackauckas

Re-posted from: http://www.stochasticlifestyle.com/useful-algorithms-that-are-not-optimized-by-jax-pytorch-or-tensorflow/

In some previous blog posts we described in details how one can generalize automatic differentiation to give automatically stability enhancements and all sorts of other niceties by incorporating graph transformations into code generation. However, one of the things which we didn’t go into too much is the limitation of these types of algorithms. This limitation is what we have termed “quasi-static” which is the property that an algorithm can be reinterpreted as some static algorithm. It turns out that for very fundamental reasons, this is the same limitation that some major machine learning frameworks impose on the code that they can fully optimize, such as Jax or Tensorflow. This led us to the question: are there algorithms which are not optimizable within this mindset, and why? The answer is now published at ICML 2021, so lets dig into this higher level concept.

The Space of Quasi-Static Algorithms

First of all, lets come up with a concrete idea of what a quasi-static algorithm is. It’s the space of algorithms which in some way can be re-expressed as a static algorithm. Think of a “static algorithm” as one which has a simple mathematical description that does not require a full computer description, i.e. no loops, rewriting to memory, etc. As an example, let’s take a look at an example from the Jax documentation. The following is something that the Jax JIT works on:

@jit
def f(x):
  for i in range(3):
    x = 2 * x
  return x
 
print(f(3))

Notice that it’s represented by something with control flow, i.e. it is code represented with a loop, but the but the loop is not necessary We can also understand this method as 2*2*2*x or 8*x. The demonstrated example of where the JIT will fail by default is:

@jit
def f(x):
  if x < 3:
    return 3. * x ** 2
  else:
    return -4 * x
 
# This will fail!
try:
  f(2)
except Exception as e:
  print("Exception {}".format(e))

In this case, we can see that there’s essentially two compute graphs split at x<3, and so as stated this does not have a single mathematical statement that describes the computation. You can get around this by doing lax.cond(x < 3, 3. * x ** 2, -4 * x), but notice this is a fundamentally different computation: the lax.cond form always computes both sides of the if statement before choosing which one to carry forward, while the true if statement changes its computation based on the conditional. The reason why the lax.cond form thus works with Jax's JIT compilation system is thus because it is quasi-static. The computations that will occur are fixed, even if the result is not, while the original if statement will change what is computed based on the input values. This limitation exists because Jax traces through a program to attempt to build the static compute graph under the hood, and it then attempts to do its actual transformations on this graph. Are there other kinds of frameworks that do something similar? It also turns out that the set of algorithms which are transformable into purely symbolic languages is the set of quasi-static algorithms, so something like Symbolics.jl also has a form of quasi-staticness manifest in the behaviors of its algorithms. And it’s for the same reason: in symbolic algorithms you define symbolic variables like “x” and “y”, and then trade through a program to build a static compute graph for “2x^2 + 3y” which you then treat symbolically. In the frequently asked questions, there is a question for what happens when a conversion of a function to symbolic fails. If you take a look at the example:

function factorial(x)
  out = x
  while x > 1
    x -= 1
    out *= x
  end
  out
end
 
@variables x
factorial(x)

You can see that the reason for this is because the algorithm is not representable as a single mathematical expression: the factorial cannot be written as a fixed number of multiplications because the number of multiplications is dependent on that value x you’re trying to compute x! for! The error that the symbolic language throws is “ERROR: TypeError: non-boolean (Num) used in boolean context”, which is saying that it does not know how to symbolically expand out “while x > 1” to be able to represent it statically. And this is not something that is not necessarily “fixable”, it’s fundamental to the fact that this algorithm is not able to be represented by a fixed computation and necessarily needs to change the computation based on the input.

Handling Non-Quasi-Static Algorithms in Symbolics and Machine Learning

The “solution” is to define a new primitive to the graph via “@register factorial(x)”, so that this function itself is a fixed node that does not try to be symbolically expanded. This is the same concept as defining a Jax primitive or a Tensorflow primitive, where an algorithm simply is not quasi-static and so the way to get a quasi-static compute graph is to treat the dynamic block just a function “y = f(x)” that is preordained. An in the context of both symbolic languages and machine learning frameworks, for this to work in full you also need to define derivatives of said function. That last part is the catch. If you take another look at the depths of the documentation of some of these tools, you’ll notice that many of these primitives representing non-static control flow fall outside of the realm that is fully handled.

Right there in the documentation it notes that you can replace a while loop with lax.while_loop, but that is not amenable to reverse-mode automatic differentiation. The reason is because its reverse-mode AD implementation assumes that such a quasi-static algorithm exists and uses this for two purposes, one for generating the backpass but secondly for generating the XLA (“Tensorflow”) description of the algorithm to then JIT compile optimize. XLA wants the static compute graph, which again, does not necessarily exist for this case, hence the fundamental limitation. The way to get around this of course is then to define your own primitive with its own fast gradient calculation and this problem goes away…

Or does it?

Where Can We Find The Limit Of Quasi-Static Optimizers?

There are machine learning frameworks which do not make the assumption of quasi-staticness but also optimize, and most of these things like Diffractor.jl, Zygote.jl, and Enzyme.jl in the Julia programming language (note PyTorch does not assume quasi-static representations, though TorchScript’s JIT compilation does). This got me thinking: are there actual machine learning algorithms for which this is a real limitation? This is a good question, because if you pull up your standard methods like convolutional neural networks, that’s a fixed function kernel call with a good derivative defined, or a recurrent neural network, that’s a fixed size for loop. If you want to break this assumption, you have to go to a space that is fundamentally about an algorithm where you cannot know “the amount of computation” until you know the specific values in the problem, and equation solvers are something of this form.

How many steps does it take for Newton’s method to converge? How many steps does an adaptive ODE solver take? This is not questions that can be answered a priori: they are fundamentally questions which require knowing:

  1. what equation are we solving?
  2. what is the initial condition?
  3. over what time span?
  4. with what solver tolerance?

For this reason, people who work in Python frameworks have been looking for the “right” way to treat equation solving (ODE solving, finding roots f(x)=0, etc.) as a blackbox representation. If you take another look at the Neural Ordinary Differential Equations paper, one of the big things it was proposing was the treatment of neural ODEs as a blackbox with a derivative defined by the ODE adjoint. The reason of course is because adaptive ODE solvers necessarily iterate to tolerance, so there is necessarily something like “while t < tend" which is dependent on whether the current computations are computed to tolerance. As something not optimized in the frameworks they were working in, this is something that was required to make the algorithm work.

Should You Treat Equation Solvers As a Quasi-Static Blackbox?

No it’s not fundamental to have to treat such algorithms as a blackbox. In fact, we had a rather popular paper a few years ago showing that neural stochastic differential equations can be trained with forward and reverse mode automatic differentiation directly via some Julia AD tools. The reason is because these AD tools (Zygote, Diffractor, Enzyme, etc.) do not necessarily assume quasi-static forms due to how they do direct source-to-source transformations, and so they can differentiate the adaptive solvers directly and spit out the correct gradients. So you do not necessarily have to do it in the “define a Tensorflow op” style, but which is better?

It turns out that “better” can be really hard to define because the two algorithms are not necessarily the same and can compute different values. You can boil this down to: do you want to differentiate the solver of the equation, or do you want to differentiate the equation and apply a solver to that? The former, which is equivalent to automatic differentiation of the algorithm, is known as discrete sensitivity analysis or discrete-then-optimize. The latter is continuous sensitivity analysis or optimize-then-discretize approaches. Machine learning is not the first field to come up against this problem, so the paper on universal differential equations and the scientific machine learning ecosystem has a rather long description that I will quote:

“””
Previous research has shown that the discrete adjoint approach is more stable than continuous adjoints in some cases [41, 37, 42, 43, 44, 45] while continuous adjoints have been demonstrated to be more stable in others [46, 43] and can reduce spurious oscillations [47, 48, 49]. This trade-off between discrete and continuous adjoint approaches has been demonstrated on some equations as a trade-off between stability and computational efficiency [50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58]. Care has to be taken as the stability of an adjoint approach can be dependent on the chosen discretization method [59, 60, 61, 62, 63], and our software contribution helps researchers switch between all of these optimization approaches in combination with hundreds of differential equation solver methods with a single line of code change.
“””

Or, tl;dr: there’s tons of prior research which generally shows that continuous adjoints are less stable than discrete adjoints, but they can be faster. We have done recent follow-ups which show these claims are true on modern problems with modern software. Specifically, this paper on stiff neural ODEs shows why discrete adjoints are more stable that continuous adjoints when training on multiscale data, but we also recently showed continuous adjoints can be much faster at gradient computations than (some) current AD techniques for discrete adjoints.

So okay, there’s a true benefit to using discrete adjoint techniques if you’re handling these hard stiff differential equations, differentiting partial differential equations, etc. and this has been known since the 80’s in the field of control theory. But other than that, it’s a wash, and so it’s not clear whether differentiating such algorithms is better in machine learning, right?

Honing In On An Essentially Non-Quasi-Static Algorithm Which Accelerates Machine Learning

This now brings us to how the recent ICML paper fits into this narrative. Is there a non-quasi-static algorithm that is truly useful for standard machine learning? The answer turns out to be yes, but how to get there requires a few slick tricks. First, the setup. Neural ODEs can be an interesting method for machine learning because they use an adaptive ODE solver to essentially choose the number of layers for you, so it’s like a recurrent neural network (or more specifically, like a residual neural network) that automatically finds the “correct” number of layers, where the number of layers is the number of steps the ODE solver decides to take. In other words, Neural ODEs for image processing are an algorithm that automatically do hyperparameter optimization. Neat!

But… what is the “correct” number of layers? For hyperparameter optimization you’d assume that would be “the least number of layers to make predictions accurately”. However, by default neural ODEs will not give you that number of layers: they will give you whatever they feel like. In fact, if you look at the original neural ODE paper, as the neural ODE trains it keeps increasing the number of layers it uses:

So is there a way to change the neural ODE to make it define “correct number of layers” as “least number of layers”? In the work Learning Differential Equations that are Easy to Solve they did just that. How they did it is that they regularized the training process of the neural ODE. They looked at the solution and noted that ODEs with have more changes going on are necessarily harder to solve, so you can transform the training process into hyperparameter optimization by adding a regularization term that says “make the higher order derivative terms as small as possible”. The rest of the paper is how to enact this idea. How was that done? Well, if you have to treat the algorithm as a blackbox, you need to define some blackbox way to defining high order derivatives which then leads to Jesse’s pretty cool formulation of Taylor-mode automatic differentiation. But no matter how you put it, that’s going to be an expensive object to compute: computing the gradient is more expensive than the forward pass, and the second derivative moreso than the gradient, and the third etc, so an algorithm that wants 6th derivatives is going to be nasty to train. With some pretty heroic work they got a formulation of this blackbox operation which takes twice as long to train but successfully does the hyperparmeter optimization.

End of story? Far from it!

The Better Way to Make Neural ODEs An Automatic Hyperparameter Optimizing Algorithm

Is there a way to make automatic hyperparameter optimization via neural ODEs train faster? Yes, and our paper makes them not only train faster than that other method, but makes it train faster than the vanilla neural ODE. We can make layer hyperparameter optimization less than free: we can make it cheaper than not doing the optimization! But how? The trick is to open the blackbox. Let me show you what a step of the adaptive ODE solver looks like:

Notice that the adaptive ODE solver chooses whether a time step is appropriate by using an error estimate. The ODE algorithm is actually constructed so that the error estimate, the estimate of “how hard this ODE is to solve”, is actually computed for free. What if we use this free error estimate as our regularization technique? It turns out that is 10x faster to train that before, while similarly automatically performing hyperparameter optimization.

Notice where we have ended up: the resulting algorithm is necessarily not quasi-static. This error estimate is computed by the actual steps of the adaptive ODE solver: to compute this error estimate, you have to do the same computations, the same while loop, as the ODE solver. In this algorithm, you cannot avoid directly differentiating the ODE solver because pieces of the ODE solver’s internal calculations are now part of the regularization. This is something that is fundamentally not optimized by methods that require quasi-static compute graphs (Jax, Tensorflow, etc.), and it is something that makes hyperparameter optimization cheaper than not doing hyperparameter optimization since the regularizer is computed for free. I just find this result so cool!

Conclusion: Finding the Limitations of Our Tools

So yes, the paper is a machine learning paper on how to do hyperparameter optimization for free using a trick on neural ODEs, but I think the general software context this sits in highlights the true finding of the paper. This is the first algorithm that I know of where there is both a clear incentive for it to be used in modern machine learning, but also, there is a fundamental reason why common machine learning frameworks like Jax and Tensorflow will not be able to treat them optimally. Even PyTorch’s TorchScript will fundamentally, due to the assumptions of its compilation process, no work on this algorithm. Those assumptions were smartly chosen because most algorithms can satisfy them, but this one cannot. Does this mean machine learning is algorithmically stuck in a rut? Possibly, because I thoroughly believe that someone working within a toolset that does not optimize this algorithm would have never found it, which makes it very thought-provoking to me.

What other algorithms are out there which are simply better than our current approaches but are worse only because of the current machine learning frameworks? I cannot wait until Diffractor.jl’s release to start probing this question deeper.

The post Useful Algorithms That Are Not Optimized By Jax, PyTorch, or Tensorflow appeared first on Stochastic Lifestyle.